475
FXUS63 KICT 061734
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOTTER TEMPS ARRIVE TODAY WITH 100+ HEAT INDICES LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASED STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR
THIS MORNING, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR SUNRISE
WITH THE LLJ INTERACTION. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FLEETING AND IS
UNLIKELY TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION REACHING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH FROM THE
GULF, OUR DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 100S FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, OUR 500MB HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
594, WITH 597 HEIGHTS JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD UPPER
90S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LOWER 100S IMPACTING
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. DEWPOINTS
WILL TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, SO HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEAT
INDICES COULD SNEAK ABOVE 105 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD, PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACT TO SHIFT THE RIDGE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE COULD THEN SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE STATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY AND LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AND STORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY HAVE A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MO. THIS AREA OF STORMS HAS KICKED OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF KSLN TO
SOUTH OF KRSL AND IS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE
IT TO AT LEAST KHUT, FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. HAVE
LESS CONFIDENCE ON IT MAKING IT DOWN TO KICT BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE AROUND 21Z. DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT A PROB30 FOR STORMS
AT KCNU AFTER 21Z AS SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
WORKING SOUTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE OUTFLOW.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL
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