475
FXUS63 KICT 070340
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1040 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. SET TO BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES
AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH WEAK TROUGHING PRESENT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE REMNANTS OF A POWERFUL OVERNIGHT
MCS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY HAVE CONTINUED INTO FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A YATES
CENTER-COFFEYVILLE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE HELPING TO COOL TEMPERATURES OFF
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. STORMS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING, AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, WITH SOME MID-LEVEL
WAA THURSDAY MORNING, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AROUND SUNRISE. ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS IS UNLIKELY TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE, WITH OCCASIONAL
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE MAIN CONCERNS.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS RIDGE.
WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD SEE THEIR HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS SOLIDLY AT
OR ABOVE THE 99.5TH PERCENTILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. RECORD HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY NOT BEING FORECAST, BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SITES LIKE WICHITA
TO SEE THEIR FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR (A DEEPER
DIVE INTO CLIMO WILL BE UNDER THE CLIMATE PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION). ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S STILL GOING TO BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DRIVE HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 105 TO 109
DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-135. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER ONE IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN A COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PERIODIC STORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, AND IT'S POSSIBLE SOME AREAS
MAY MISS OUT ON RAINFALL ENTIRELY. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THAT WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURE-WISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO, IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
AN INCREASING LLJ WILL BRING LLWS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL, GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3-4 AM ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TRYING TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE KCNU
TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1889, WICHITA HAS ONLY HAD 7 CALENDAR
YEARS WITHOUT A 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST RECENT YEAR
WITHOUT A 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES WAS 1927.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST IS FOR WICHITA TO HIT 99 ON THURSDAY, 101 ON
FRIDAY, AND 99 ON SATURDAY. IF WICHITA WERE TO HIT 100 ON THURSDAY,
IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY SINCE 2007. IF WICHITA
WERE TO HIT 100 ON FRIDAY, IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FIRST 100-DEGREE
DAY SINCE 1928. WITH DECREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
IT BEING, CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR, THE NEXT 3
DAYS OR SO IS LIKELY THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WICHITA TO HIT 100
DEGREES THIS YEAR, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...JC
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