658
FXUS63 KICT 070739
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 107 EXPECTED.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
CURRENTLY A SIZABLE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA. A BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE FORM
OF A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS. EARLY THIS MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH THAT FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY, LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS,
WILL LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE WITH MINIMAL, ISOLATED IMPACTS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HEAT
WAVE DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVES SO FAR THIS SUMMER IN THAT
THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S EXPECTED. THIS MEANS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 100S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS CONTINUE TO SEE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AS SUCH WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. WHILE NOT AS HUMID AS WE HAVE BEEN SO FAR THIS
SUMMER, WE WILL STILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY AND FRIDAY TOPPING
OUT AROUND 107. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY WITH A NEW HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
BY SATURDAY, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH. CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A "COOL
DOWN" WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 100S ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS ON SATURDAY. BUT BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SEND A CORRESPONDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. ALONG WITH THE COOL DOWN, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO AT
LEAST NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T LOOK TO SHUT OFF IMMEDIATELY, POPS FOR
MID NEXT WEEK WILL DIMINISH WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
AN INCREASING LLJ WILL BRING LLWS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL, GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3-4 AM ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TRYING TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE KCNU
TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1889, WICHITA HAS ONLY HAD 7 CALENDAR
YEARS WITHOUT A 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST RECENT YEAR
WITHOUT A 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES WAS 1927.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST IS FOR WICHITA TO HIT 99 ON THURSDAY, 101 ON
FRIDAY, AND 99 ON SATURDAY. IF WICHITA WERE TO HIT 100 ON THURSDAY,
IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY SINCE 2007. IF WICHITA
WERE TO HIT 100 ON FRIDAY, IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FIRST 100-DEGREE
DAY SINCE 1928. WITH DECREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
IT BEING, CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR, THE NEXT 3
DAYS OR SO IS LIKELY THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WICHITA TO HIT 100
DEGREES THIS YEAR, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...JC
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