859
FXUS63 KICT 080747
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INTENSE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND (HOTTEST TODAY),
MODEST COOL DOWN MONDAY-TUESDAY, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH GREATER CHANCES ARRIVING LATER SUNDAY AND PERSISTING OFF-
AND-ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
TEMPERATURES:
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS, AS
THICKNESS INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 90S THROUGH MID-100S, WARMEST WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS EXCEEDED 105 DEGREES
ALONG/WEST OF I-135 GIVEN SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS THERE. FORECAST
HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 105-110 DEGREES AREAWIDE, SO WILL CONTINUE
THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY AREAWIDE FROM 1-8PM. THE ONLY REPRIEVE
FROM THE HEAT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
ESPECIALLY TODAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL BE HOT, BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS
TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE HOTTER THAN SUNDAY GIVEN GREATER THICKNESS AND
LESS CLOUD-COVER, SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HEAT
ADVISORY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE "COOLEST" DAYS OF THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS, AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING
INCREASED CLOUD-COVER AND POTENTIAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. SEASONABLY
COOL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S LOOK PROBABLE. AS WE HEAD
INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 90S, AS THICKNESS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
POWERFUL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HEFTY DOWNDRAFT CAPE WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE.
PER MODEL CONSENSUS, BETTER CHANCES FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE
ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION, AS AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK, SO
NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN CONCERT
WITH MID-UPPER FLOW MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY COULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
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