907
FXUS63 KICT 260455
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY, WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT SPANS
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. THESE SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH CLOUD COVERAGE KEEPING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION:
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW/MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES VIA A MID/UPPER SPEED MAX DIVING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT UNUSUALLY-
HIGH PWATS IN THE 1.5"-2" RANGE OVER THE REGION. WITH MUCAPE AROUND
500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES
HEADING INTO THURSDAY. THIS MAY ADDITIONALLY PROVIDE A FLOODING
THREAT GIVEN SOMEWHAT-MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS, SO STAY
TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE DETAILS IN UPCOMING FORECAST CYCLES.
TEMPERATURES:
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK GIVEN THE STAGNANT AIRMASS. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO TUE AND WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KS TONIGHT
INTO TUE WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOWER CIGS WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
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