723
FXUS63 KICT 260905
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
405 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY; FLOODING POTENTIAL INCREASING
- THE STRETCH OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
AS OF 330AM TUESDAY MORNING, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE.
THE RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
IS YIELDING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
TRANSITIONING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A STRENGTHENING LLJ
ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IN FACT,
THE BULK OF NIGHTTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KS. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY AS
THE LLJ VEERS, SETTING UP A CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THIS BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KT LLJ
OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN KS. THE LLJ PLACEMENT WILL SETUP A CONVERGENCE
ZONE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS.
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE VEERING TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A COMPACT
300MB SPEED MAX PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY. ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL
OVERLAP THE LLJ CONVERGENCE ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75 TO
2". THE THREAT FLOODING AND FLASH-FLOODING IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE AS WELL WITH STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, OR PARALLEL TO THE LLJ CONVERGENCE AXIS. IN REGARDS
TO POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS, NBM, EPS, AND THE SREF CONTINUE TO
PAINT THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS WITH A NEAR 100% FOR RECEIVING MORE THAN
1" OF RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, THE PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 3"
EXCEED 60% ALONG THAT SAME AXIS. ALL OF THAT TO SAY, A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BEYOND THURSDAY, SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCH CLOSER TO 80, THOUGH STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO TUE AND WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KS TONIGHT
INTO TUE WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOWER CIGS WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SO WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL
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