474
FXUS63 KICT 262326
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE KEEPING
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE,
MAJORITY OF KANSAS REMAINS UNDER AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET IN WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORM WITH A VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING MORE
TOWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE SETS UP IN
CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN KANSAS, KEEPING BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES IN EASTERN TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP IN SOUTHERN KANSAS, LEAVING AN AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE FROM CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONALLY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TOWARDS MISSOURI/ARKANSAS LEAVING OUR
AREA IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THESE COUPLED
TOGETHER WILL LEAD TO HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AS PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2". ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL, BUT EVEN SO, THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE OVER 2" OF RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH, BUT
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE WEEKEND,
WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN AT THE SURFACE
HELPING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TOWARDS 80 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK
RIPPLE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. CIGS WILL DROP INTO
THE MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CATEGORY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ
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