634
FXUS63 KICT 271743
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER
ROUND EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING; HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
- THE STRETCH OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING, A LLJ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
WESTERN KS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALING A 20-25 KT JET ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL-WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST 6 OR 7 AM. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THEREAFTER AS THE LLJ VEERS AND CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN FLANK
INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWER/STORM DURATIONS
OF 2-4 HOURS AT A GIVEN LOCATION. OTHERWISE, THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A 30-40 KT LLJ OVERSPREADS
SOUTHERN KS. THE LLJ PLACEMENT WILL SETUP A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM
CENTRAL KS INTO THE FLINT HILLS. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ANCHORED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE VEERING
TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
PROVIDED BY A COMPACT 300MB SPEED MAX PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY. ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
WILL OVERLAP THE LLJ CONVERGENCE ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2".
THE THREAT FLOODING AND FLASH-FLOODING IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS WELL
WITH STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE SOUTHEAST, OR PARALLEL TO
THE LLJ CONVERGENCE AXIS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN LARGELY
ALIGNED WITH THE RAIN OUTPUTS AND AREAS OF GREATEST TOTALS. THE NBM,
EPS, AND SREF CONTINUE TO PAINT THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS FROM CENTRAL
KS INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS WITH A NEAR 100% FOR
RECEIVING MORE THAN 1" OF RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, THE PROBABILITIES
FOR MORE THAN 2" EXCEED 75% ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. PROBABILITIES
RANGE FROM 10-25% FOR RAIN TOTALS TO EXCEED 4" WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. LATEST
FLASH-FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 3.5-4.5" OF RAINFALL IS
REQUIRED IN A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR FLASH-FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. AS A
RESULT, WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR A
FLOOD WATCH.
BEYOND THURSDAY, SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO INCH CLOSER TO 80, THOUGH STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK PERTURBATION EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
PERTURBATIONS EJECTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN RETURN LATER
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT
THE TIMEFRAME OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TS COVERAGE WITH TEMPO GROUPS
AT ALL SITES, WITH AREAS IN A LINE FROM SLN TO CNU SEEING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PROLONGED IMPACTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WELL, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT FOR A TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ048>053-067>072-083-094>096-099-100.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK
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