025
FXUS63 KICT 271948
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING
EASTERN KANSAS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE EVENING AFFECTING EASTERN TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL WAA PERSISTS. TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP IN SOUTHERN KANSAS, LEAVING AN AXIS OF MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM CENTRAL KS TO THE FLINT HILLS. ADDITIONALLY,
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LEAVING OUR AREA IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THESE
COUPLED TOGETHER WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS
PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2". GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE IS LIKELY, MAKING ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST. STORM MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAKING TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE >75% CHANCE OF MOST OF THE AREA SEEING
OVER 1" OF RAINFALL WITH ABOUT A 75% CHANCE THAT CENTRAL KS THROUGH
THE FLINT HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST KS OBSERVES MORE THAN 2". IN SOME OF
THESE AREAS, THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4" MAINLY IN THE
FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP POSITION THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
FARTHER SOUTH BRINGING THE WICHITA METRO INTO THE FLOODING
THREAT, GIVING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT POSITIONING. GIVEN
THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISKS, A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED AS RAIN TOTALS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-5" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE WEEKEND,
WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN AT THE SURFACE
HELPING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TOWARDS 80 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK
RIPPLE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS PRECIP
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS WITH WEAK RIPPLES RIDING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN RETURN LATER
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT
THE TIMEFRAME OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TS COVERAGE WITH TEMPO GROUPS
AT ALL SITES, WITH AREAS IN A LINE FROM SLN TO CNU SEEING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PROLONGED IMPACTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WELL, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR CEILINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT FOR A TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ048>053-067>072-083-093>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK
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