073
FXUS63 KICT 281911
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
211 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, KEEPING OUR AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN NORTHERN TEXAS
WITH SHOWERS ONGOING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT,
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
60S.
AS THIS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK
RIPPLE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING DOWN
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 500
J/KG, LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS A
BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH PWAT VALUES. THE ECMWF AND GDPS
GENERALLY HAVE PWATS UP TO 1.75" IN CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THESE VALUES FARTHER EAST NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER.
THE BEST CHANCES (30-50%) AT THIS POINT ARE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
IN CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS WITH WEAK RIPPLES RIDING THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR WITH
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AS WELL BUT WILL MOST LIKELY DEAL WITH
LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECTING LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO RETURN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLY REACHING IFR
CONDITIONS BUT JUST TRENDED THAT WAY FOR NOW.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...SGS
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