586
FXUS63 KICT 291047
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
547 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS, IF NOT LONGER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY ROTATING
ACROSS MT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY SATURATED WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS
AND IS ALLOWING FOG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP, WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG LIKELY. SO WHILE SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE
THIS MORNING, SOUTHEAST KS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
DENSE FOG.
OUTSIDE OF FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER IMPULSE
OVER SOUTHERN UT LIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/WESTERN KS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST ON SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT AS THE UPPER PERTURBATION OVER MT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS. LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS OR STRONG UPPER
FORCING SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
SCATTERED. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SO IT'S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT
THE UPPER ENERGY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SINK
SOUTHEAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN
PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN KS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A DIGGING DOWN A VERY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WED INTO
WED NIGHT. THIS WILL PULL DOWN A VERY ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR BOTH THU AND FRI.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM LOW MVFR TO LIFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT MID-MORNING, GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-
095-096.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK
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