831
FXUS63 KICT 292343
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS WITHIN THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY MAY QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS WE
MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER ONLY A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES SLOWLY APPROACH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS, SOME LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO MAY APPROACH TOWARD
MORNING ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE CONTINUE
TO SEE A RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LIMITED INSOLATION WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...A SLOWLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS
LITTLE TO SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL ALSO SEE A CONTINUATION OF
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TUE-FRI...THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS NORTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ROBUST SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR MAY
ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA DRIVING A ROBUST COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR ARRIVES LATE WED-THU.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
MOSTLY LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND CONTINUED MOIST LOW-
LEVELS, CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF
I-135. DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING IN 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME,
ALTHOUGH WILL MONITOR FOR 06Z TAFS. OTHERWISE, CHANCES FOR
HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW THINKING THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY TSRA WILL BE RSL AND GBD LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FURTHER EAST ONLY INCLUDED SHRA FOR
ICT-HUT-SLN-CNU, ALTHOUGH WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
TSRA INSERTION IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. ONLY USED PROB30 GROUPS
AT THIS TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
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