033
FXUS63 KICT 300536
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERS WITHIN THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LOW CLOUDS IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY MAY QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS WE
MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER ONLY A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES SLOWLY APPROACH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS, SOME LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO MAY APPROACH TOWARD
MORNING ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WE CONTINUE
TO SEE A RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LIMITED INSOLATION WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...A SLOWLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS
LITTLE TO SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL ALSO SEE A CONTINUATION OF
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TUE-FRI...THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS NORTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE ROBUST SURGE OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR MAY
ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA DRIVING A ROBUST COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR ARRIVES LATE WED-THU.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD MVFR WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF
WINDOWS OF VFR, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEGINNING
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KS AND NE ARE ANTICIPATED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AT GBD. OTHERWISE, WEAKLY-FORCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO CENTRAL KS
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION, DECIDED TO LEAVE PROB30S AT ALL SITES FOR APPROXIMATE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, THEN PREVAILING VCTS IN CENTRAL KS AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO LATER CYCLES AS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK
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