977
FXUS63 KICT 300755
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SURGE OF FALL-LIKE AIR POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO
AND IS APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST SD.
OUTSIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN TX, THERE
ISN'T MANY SURFACE FEATURES TO FOCUS ON.
LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WILL MAKE IT A TOUGH PRECIP FORECAST FOR
TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORCING BEING WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN MCV NEAR
KDDC ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING IMPULSE/JET STREAK FROM NORTHEAST
CO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SO STILL KEEPING WITH THE THINKING THAT
WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, BUT
MORE OF JUST A GENERAL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. PW VALUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 150% OF
NORMAL, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
BY SUN AFTERNOON, A MORE ROBUST UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KS. UPPER ENERGY WILL BE ON THE MOVE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON AS IT TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO THE OZARK
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUE.
GFS AND ECMWF STILL AGREE ON DIGGING A VERY ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL PULL
DOWN FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR THU-
FRI, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN KS. THERE MAYBE SOME PRECIP TIED TO THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARD MVFR WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF
WINDOWS OF VFR, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BEGINNING
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KS AND NE ARE ANTICIPATED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AT GBD. OTHERWISE, WEAKLY-FORCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO CENTRAL KS
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION, DECIDED TO LEAVE PROB30S AT ALL SITES FOR APPROXIMATE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, THEN PREVAILING VCTS IN CENTRAL KS AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO LATER CYCLES AS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page