982
FXUS63 KICT 301143
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SURGE OF FALL-LIKE AIR POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO
AND IS APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST SD.
OUTSIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN TX, THERE
ISN'T MANY SURFACE FEATURES TO FOCUS ON.
LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WILL MAKE IT A TOUGH PRECIP FORECAST FOR
TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORCING BEING WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN MCV NEAR
KDDC ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING IMPULSE/JET STREAK FROM NORTHEAST
CO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SO STILL KEEPING WITH THE THINKING THAT
WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, BUT
MORE OF JUST A GENERAL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. PW VALUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 150% OF
NORMAL, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
BY SUN AFTERNOON, A MORE ROBUST UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH WILL
KEEP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KS. UPPER ENERGY WILL BE ON THE MOVE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON AS IT TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND INTO THE OZARK
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUE.
GFS AND ECMWF STILL AGREE ON DIGGING A VERY ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WED AFTERNOON AND WILL PULL
DOWN FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR THU-
FRI, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN KS. THERE MAYBE SOME PRECIP TIED TO THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ALONG
WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS.
A FEW WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WHILE IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW STORMS MAYBE
POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SO WILL JUST RUN WITH VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL SOMETHING
MORE ROBUST DEVELOPS. WILL LEAVE VFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ALL SITES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS WEST OF I-135
AFTER 06Z SUN, WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...RBL
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