331
FXUS63 KICT 310005
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SURGE OF FALL-LIKE AIR LATE WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A
KICKER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON MONDAY FORCING THIS SUBTLE TROUGH TO MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND WITH LIMITED
INSOLATION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 70S SUN-MON.
TUE...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ON TUE WITH SEASONABLY
COOL HIGHS IN THE 70S ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN.
WED-THU...A MORE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED WILL DRIVE A
ROBUST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WED AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS IN ON
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THU. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 40S
IN SOME AREAS BOTH WED NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT.
FRI-SAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRI-SAT
WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME AND MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL VALUES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
BUT MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S ON SAT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
CHALLENGES
1) MVFR & IFR CONDITIONS
2) TIMING OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF HAYS. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE USE
OF A DELAYED TEMPO GROUP FOR KRSL AND KGBD. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 6Z
WHICH LED TO A PREVAILING -SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE COULD BE
A DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR KHUT,
BUT THIS MAY NEED TO EXPAND INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...VJP
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