458
FXUS63 KICT 310803
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WED-WED NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL MCV
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
LIGHT MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
700MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN PLACE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. WITH A HIGH PW AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, A FEW
BURST OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING, UPPER
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL START TO SINK SOUTHEAST AND
WILL PASS OVER EASTERN KS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
MODEST PRECIP CHANCES IN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KS. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL FINALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY.
STILL LOOKING FOR A DEEP UPPER LOW TO TRACK OUT OF
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WED AFTERNOON. DID NOTICE THE
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VERY SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR NOT MAKING IT AS
FAR SOUTHWEST. NONETHELESS, STILL LOOKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT, KNOCKING HIGHS DOWN INTO
THE LOW 70S FOR THU. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING, EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER
TROUGHING STAYS IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, KEEPING THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN BRIEF VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS. CURRENTLY
THINKING CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS SITES WILL SEE AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS NOT VERIFYING LOW CIGS,
DECIDED AGAINST IFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING, THOUGH CENTRAL KS SITES
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE IMPACTS. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LINGERING SHOWERS SLOWLY PUSH THEIR WAY
EAST.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
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