153
FXUS63 KICT 091735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
- MORE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING; SMALL
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEEKEND
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY,
THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS
CLOUD COVER GENERALLY EAST OF I-135 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MAIN
IMPULSE OF THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. WE'RE NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. BUT WITH PWATS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5",
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT.
FOR TODAY, WE WILL SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE LLJ LATER TONIGHT. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK, THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES SOARING PAST NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WITH
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY, WE
COULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH ANY OF THE SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN
THE PATTERN THAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION. THEN, TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD, A DEEP THOUGH NOT INCREDIBLY STRONG TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE PLAINS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL MODERATE OUR TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED FOR SUN-TUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OF ALL
TERMINALS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE AT
SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU THROUGH SUNSET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEREAFTER. FINALLY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW FOR ANY PREVAILING MENTION BUT HAVE OPTED FOR PROB30S AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT CNU.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF
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