564
FXUS63 KICT 092333
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING SOUTHEAST KS; ADDITIONAL CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (20-30%)
- A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING (<15%)
- MORE STORM CHANCES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO INCH ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS AND CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS
THE FOOT HILLS OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK WAA PATTERN CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST KS BY 3 PM.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND ANY MCV MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MAINTENANCE FOR STORMS TO LIMP IN CENTRAL
KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION OR AHEAD
OF ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, PW VALUES NEAR 1.5" WOULD SUPPORT A
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S/NEAR 90 FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SHUNTING A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RETURN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BECOME DOMINATE
BY AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
CONUS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS IS SHOULD LEAD TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OVER
THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED
6-HOUR BLOCKS OF PROB30 TSRA AT ALL SITES TO COVER THIS THREAT.
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...ADK
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