780
FXUS63 KICT 110825
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
- DRAMATIC WARM UP FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRST 90-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES SINCE APPROXIMATELY 3 WEEKS AGO.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
CURRENTLY, A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS IS
LEADING TO STRONG WAA AT THE 850 LEVEL WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
LLJ EARLY THIS MORNING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE A.M. HOURS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION, THIS IS TRANSLATING TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THIS, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING PAST SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN BALMY WITH MANY REMAINING IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. WITH BROAD SCALE SINKING MOTION OVER THE
PLAINS, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, A DEEP TROUGH THAT'S CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS BEGINNING
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR,
BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN KANSAS AS THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL ACT TO MODERATE
OUR TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS FALLING INTO 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING,
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...GC
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