307
FXUS63 KICT 120522
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135.
- WILL START THE WORK WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SAT
MORNING, WITH UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND A BROAD UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY SAT AFTERNOON, THERE IS
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLOWLY
TRACKING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HIGHS AROUND
90 OR IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH SAT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR
BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS WESTERN KS AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY
AND MAY START IMPACTING OUR WESTERN FRINGES SUN AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SURFACE CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT, WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KS BY
EARLY SUN EVENING WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AS THEY TRACK EAST. GIVEN FORECAST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
BY 12Z MON, ONE UPPER IMPULSE WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A SECOND UPPER LOW SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
WED AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS THEN AGREE WELL ON SLIDING THE
UPPER IMPULSE ALONG THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED STORM CHANCES. BUT BEFORE THEN,
WE ARE LOOKING FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON-WED WITH HIGHS
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS AFFECTING RSL, SLN, AND GBD
SITES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE
GUSTS EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...GC
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