601
FXUS63 KICT 130740
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, SEASONABLY
WARM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MODEST COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEEK'S END. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PRECIPITATION:
LATE TONIGHT--SUNDAY EVENING...A DEEP WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING ONTO MID-AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST. THINKING CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHEST GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. A LIMITED
COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
TUESDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND SLOW-MOVING AND WOBBLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THINKING CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WHEN LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GREATEST. ONCE AGAIN, LIMITED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES:
A RELATIVELY THICK ATMOSPHERE AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH MID 90S TODAY. SUNDAY
WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS
WHERE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. SEASONABLY WARM
READINGS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A MODEST COOL DOWN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY AFFECTING RSL, GBD, SLN, AND HUT.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE LATE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC
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