621
FXUS63 KICT 132331
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS AND
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD
AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 AFTER 5PM
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CENTERED IN UTAH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE A EASTWARD TRACK AND SPARK OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL ACTIVITY AFFECTING LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF I-135 SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG OR
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/ELEVATED INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE,
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WILL DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS. GIVEN THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY FROM STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND JUST ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR ALOFT THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS COULD YIELD A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS WOULD THEN TRACK
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY
AFTER 5PM. EXPECTING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DECREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE WEATHER
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SHOW A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEING
CARVED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLOW EAST
MIGRATION HEADING INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ARE PROJECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD FROM NEBRASKA INTO
KANSAS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS
TO SLOW DOWN OR POSSIBLY STALL OUT OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOPING. THE ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST OF KANSAS. THE PROLONGED RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO MATERIALIZE.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP
AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AROUND ICT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR -TSRA THERE. OTHERWISE, MAINTAINED
PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS SITES DUE TO
PERSISTING UNCERTAINTY IN IMPACTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
NEAR-MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGEST CNU
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JWK
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