357
FXUS63 KICT 151707
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH OFF-AND-ON ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, AS A MOIST/UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY GIVEN RATHER WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL, 50-60 MPH WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WOBBLING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT OFF-
AND-ON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED AS REFINE FORECAST
DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DECREASING
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A MODEST COOL DOWN, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
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