890
FXUS63 KICT 042353
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KS AFTER SUNSET.
- RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY/TUESDAY, THEN A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
HAS ALLOWED FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SETUP OVER KANSAS
TODAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS TO THIS POINT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LIMITED DECOUPLING TONIGHT ALONGSIDE A 50-60 MPH LLJ, SO
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH, BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF ANY LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP, DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AMID AMPLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME
CAPPING ISSUES. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE
ALONGSIDE 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON.
HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT ACTIVITY TOWARDS A LINEAR MODE
FAIRLY QUICKLY, WHICH WILL MAKE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S OUT AHEAD. DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY, WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO NEAR 80 HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WITHIN 1500-2000 FT AGL WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY FOR THE TAF SITES RSL-GBD-SLN-HUT AND POSSIBLY ICT, DUE
TO A 45-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. INSERTED PROB30 GROUPS AT
RSL AND GBD TO COVER THIS THREAT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK
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