805
FXUS63 KICT 051050
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS; A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK; WARMING TREND
LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY MORNING, AN EXPANSIVE MIDLEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN SD, WAS
AIDING TO SHUNT A SURFACE TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS. AN
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RESIDES ALONG THE FRONT WITH 40S
BEHIND THE FRONT AND 70S AHEAD. A STOUT PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE PLAINS REVEAL WAA
WITH LOW AND MIDLEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES. SCATTERED REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WAA PATTERN. CLOUD BASES ARE BETWEEN 10-15 KFT WITH A
TREMENDOUSLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. AS A RESULT, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING.
TRANSITIONING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH INITIATION LIKELY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF RUSSELL/BARTON
COUNTIES. HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (8-9 C/KM) WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM),
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. MODEST VEERING AND
ACCELERATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL CREATE 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AS SUCH, A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
65M MPH.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-60%). TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WARMING TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARING 80 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
LLWS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT CNU THROUGH
15Z AS A 45-60 KT LLJ REMAINS OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
AND HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING VCTS AT RSL/GBD/SLN WITH TEMPO
TSRA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION OF TSRA ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THIS WIND SHIFT ONLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL KS SITES BY 12Z
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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