362
FXUS63 KICT 061758
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY, TONIGHT, AND INTO TUESDAY; BEST
CHANCES (30-70%) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK; WARMING
TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK/WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHUNT A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE. AT THIS HOUR, THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OK
PANHANDLE THROUGH GREAT BEND, SALINA, MANHATTAN, NORTHEAST FROM
THERE. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY POST-
FRONTAL. AS THIS FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (30-70%) WILL EXTEND SOUTH AS WELL. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THIS
WAA PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN-PLACE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN 500 J/KG OR
LESS, GREATLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
WEATHER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, MUCH COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS (WHERE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED). LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
WITH POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IMPACTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-60S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SETTLE INTO THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WARMING TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SHOWERS, STORMS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
IMPACTING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CURRENTLY, A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. CIGS AND VIS CATS
ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
KHUT-KSLN LINE. THIS IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVING CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, STORMS,
LOW CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM TIME TO
TIME (MAINLY FROM PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE) OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. MORE INCREASED COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z, THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
AFTER 12Z. CLOSER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC
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