404
FXUS63 KICT 061946
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, THEN A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE
MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HEARTLAND. A COLD FRONT SPANNING FROM THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE GREAT LAKES HAS SLOWLY MADE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AMID LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT OTHERWISE PRECLUDE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. COOLER AIR FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS, WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR 60 THANKS TO
LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S AND SOUTHEAST KS REACHING THE LOW
70S. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RESUME OVER THE PLAINS AND RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TO FINISH THE WEEK. OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
LONG-RANGE MODELS HINT AT AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE
AREA TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SHOWERS, STORMS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
IMPACTING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CURRENTLY, A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. CIGS AND VIS CATS
ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
KHUT-KSLN LINE. THIS IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVING CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, STORMS,
LOW CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM TIME TO
TIME (MAINLY FROM PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE) OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. MORE INCREASED COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z, THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
AFTER 12Z. CLOSER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC
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