050
FXUS63 KICT 080753
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING, MIDLEVEL RIDGING WAS ADVANCING FROM
THE WESTERN US INTO THE PLAINS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES FROM CENTRAL KS THROUGH MN. ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS RETURN
TO THE HIGH PLAINS. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REVEAL
PROFILES BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THIS
LAYER IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN KS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST OF THE AREA, THIS STRATUS DECK
WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LATER TODAY.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70S. SOUTHEAST KS WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
TRANSITIONING INTO TONIGHT, A MODEST LLJ (30-35 KT) WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN KS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE LLJ WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH, TO SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
LLJ CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS,
MAINLY AFTER 3 AM. RAP/HRRR/NAM/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
STEEPENING LAPSES RATES ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK
WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE.
MODEST ACCELERATION OF THE WIND PROFILE FROM 2-6 KM WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 20- 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ALL OF THAT TO SAY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT HAIL NEAR QUARTER SIZE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
RETURNING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WESTERN US
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEEPENING OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY. NOT ONLY WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AS
WELL (20-30%).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MOSTLY AROUND 6-12 KTS
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A LOW
POTENTIAL (20%) FOR PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING TOO LOW FOR A MENTION
AT ANY SITE AT THIS TIME, WILL AMD AS NEEDED PER SATELLITE AND OBS
TRENDS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK
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