805
FXUS63 KICT 090542
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1242 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
CURRENTLY, THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
RELATIVELY SATURATED MIDLEVELS ALONG WITH WAA AT 700MB ARE LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AN INCREASING LLJ
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 06-09Z.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION, BECOMING ESPECIALLY DOMINANT FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A
TROUGH ON SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THOSE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS FLIRTING WITH THE UPPER 80S.
WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN, NEAR ZERO PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BUT AS THE DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE RIDGE EAST, THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ON SATURDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR MON-WED LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WILL FALL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE STATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO ON AND OFF
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MOSTLY-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS
MORNING PERSIST BUT REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTIONS WITH THIS CYCLE,
SO WILL AMD PER RADAR TRENDS.
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS AROUND EARLY TO MID-MORNING AT ICT BUT
THESE SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
SOUTH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS IN
CENTRAL KS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS IN SOUTHEAST KS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK
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