455
FXUS63 KICT 091120
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THE EASTERN HALF
OF KS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION ALL REVEAL MODEST WAA WITH VEERING PROFILES FROM 925MB
THROUGH 700MB. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING, A 30-35 KT LLJ WILL VEER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, TO
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND
INTO THE FLINT HILLS. IR SATELLITE REVEALS A RESIDUAL AREA OF
STRATUS NEAR 8KFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
AXIS OF CLOUD COVER LIKELY REVEALS THE MOST-LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTION. RAP/HRRR/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL MODEST LAPSES
RATES (~6.5 C/KM) ABOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS DECK WITH
UPWARDS OF 600-800 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. MODEST
ACCELERATION OF THE WIND PROFILE FROM 2-6 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
20- 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ALL OF THAT TO SAY, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SMALL HAIL.
TRANSITIONING INTO TONIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SHUNTING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS
EASTERN KS. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL
ZONE WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
RETURNING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WESTERN US
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEEPENING OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30-35 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY. NOT ONLY WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AS
WELL (20-30%). AN ACTIVE MIDLEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO EMERGE THROUGH
THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PROSPECTS FOR SHRA OR TSRA REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS MO. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
(ESPECIALLY AT RSL/GBD/SLN). LLWS CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT ALL SITES EXCEPT CNU.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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