417
FXUS63 KICT 092325
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RELATIVELY MOIST COLUMN THROUGH 700MB. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
1.25+ PWATS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTING WITH THE
MOISTURE LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AREAWIDE. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE DARTING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS DURING
THE EARLY AM HOURS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
DRIER WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA WILL REACH INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN,
NEAR ZERO PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AS
THE DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE RIDGE EAST, THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ON SATURDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR MON-WED LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WILL COOL OFF COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
MEANDER OVER THE STATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO ON
AND OFF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH LLWS IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING IN CENTRAL KS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING LLJ ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN LLWS IMPACTS IN CENTRAL KS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z AND
LASTING THROUGH AROUND 14Z. ADDITIONALLY, DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A
PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT CNU THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS PER SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE. IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SLIGHTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, THOUGH VFR REMAINS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK
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