550
FXUS63 KICT 100402
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RELATIVELY MOIST COLUMN THROUGH 700MB. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
1.25+ PWATS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTING WITH THE
MOISTURE LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AREAWIDE. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE DARTING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS DURING
THE EARLY AM HOURS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
DRIER WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA WILL REACH INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN,
NEAR ZERO PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AS
THE DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS AND PUSHES THE RIDGE EAST, THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ON SATURDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR MON-WED LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WILL COOL OFF COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
MEANDER OVER THE STATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO ON
AND OFF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KRSL-KGBD AROUND 12Z
AND KICT AROUND 00Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIP
TIED TO THE FRONT AND WILL JUST BE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL
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