656
FXUS63 KICT 100743
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA WHICH HAS SPARKED OFF
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CLIP SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER
THIS MORNING BUT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE REGION. MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS TODAY WITH NO IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES AS DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY RETREAT
BACK NORTHWARD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF
KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, A FAIRLY STOUT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL CREATED
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTING
FROM THE ROCKIES AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS TO MATERIALIZE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY.
MODELS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY. THIS
WILL AMPLIFY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND CAUSE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD ACROSS KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KRSL-KGBD AROUND 12Z
AND KICT AROUND 00Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIP
TIED TO THE FRONT AND WILL JUST BE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
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