601
FXUS63 KICT 111026
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
526 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS
WEEKEND
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO THE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AND STALLS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROHIBIT
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON MONDAY WITH RAIN/CLOUDS IN THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD BACK INTO
KANSAS. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD OCCUR
EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE GUSTS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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