030
FXUS63 KICT 111931
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT,
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH STILL BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE,
DRIER WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST, APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN OUR AREA CAUSING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAKING PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES ARE GENERALLY
LOW (AROUND 20%). BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THOUGH, GIVEN
THE MODEL DISCREPANCY, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING ON MONDAY
AND LOCATION/COVERAGE. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 1.25" BY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.6" MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE 175-200% GREATER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, LEADING TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL FOR ANY SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. GIVEN GENERALLY 200-400 J/KG OF INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WEAK MID-
LVL LAPSE RATES. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN AND EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S
WHICH IS CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, RETURNING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IN OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AS IT LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AREA. POTENTIAL CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS
WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
WINDY BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING SOUTHERLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PLAGUE CENTRAL
KANSAS SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LLJ, ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNU WILL EXPERIENCE LLWS
BY 09Z WITH 40-50 KNOT WINDS AROUND 2K FT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD
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