679
FXUS63 KICT 120651
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
151 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
ADVECTED LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER POLAR SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE MID-LEVELS AND GRADUALLY WORK DOWNWARDS POSSIBLY GIVING WAY
TO ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE ON PRECIPITABLE WATER.
THIS ADDED MOISTURE WILL SPARK OFF BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF
STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH AND WEST MONDAY
NIGHT, AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.
A MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY AND EJECT OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE A STRONG
CAP ALOFT WHICH WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON
THURSDAY AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG
WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LOW GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS KANSAS ON
FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
LITTLE CHANGED FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND
1500-2000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT CNU, DUE TO A 45-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET. FOR SUNDAY, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BY MID-MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER, CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, DUE TO INCREASING RICH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCES
LOOK BETTER LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING, SO ADDED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR -SHRA. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED, SO THINKING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
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