089
FXUS63 KICT 130402
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE AIDING IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
CONNECTING TO AN ADDITIONAL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND PWATS INCREASE. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY
200% GREATER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAKING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, BETTER
COVERAGE IN RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS. WITH THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY, A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY GIVEN THE RAIN AND EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S, WHICH IS CLOSE
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DIG OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AIDING IN THE WARMING TREND
IN OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE,
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY CAUSING ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
SETUP IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MAKING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY,
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN EASTERN
KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST KS, THROUGH KSLN
AND NOW APPROACHING KHUT. NORTH OF THE FRONT WINDS HAVE FLIPPED
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOUTH WINDS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN WORKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT
OF SOUTHEAST KS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 15Z MON AND LIFT GRADUALLY
NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY THUNDER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS, ALSO LOOKING
FOR CIGS TO START TO LOWER, WITH MVFR LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-135 LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL
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