484
FXUS63 KICT 131058
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS FOR TODAY ALONG
WITH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY-FRIDAY AND NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
CURRENT POLAR SATELLITE MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RICH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS STREAMING NORTH FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS TODAY. A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE BETTER VERTICAL LIFT WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION AREAS SHIFTING
NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEANWHILE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES DIVING SOUTHWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY, THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WED-THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCING THE AREA.
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MEANWHILE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
SATURATE AND CAUSE CEILINGS TO BECOME LOWER WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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