100
FXUS63 KICT 131746
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS FOR TODAY ALONG
WITH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY-FRIDAY AND NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
CURRENT POLAR SATELLITE MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RICH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS STREAMING NORTH FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS TODAY. A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE BETTER VERTICAL LIFT WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION AREAS SHIFTING
NORTH OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEANWHILE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES DIVING SOUTHWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY, THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS WED-THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCING THE AREA.
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF -SHRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE BEST CHANCES SHIFT INTO NORTHERN KS AND NE.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO MVFR
WITH IFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AT GBD AND RSL IS LOW WITH ADDITIONAL -SHRA
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...BRF
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