758
FXUS63 KICT 131939
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT; ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS TUESDAY
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON, BROAD SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND RIDGING WITHIN THE MS VALLEY. THE STRONG FRONT THAT
PROGRESSED THROUGH CENTRAL KS HAS STALLED FROM NORTHERN OK THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL KS. A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE STATE WITH 50S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
MODEST MIDLEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE AXIS OF WAA WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
KS TUESDAY AS A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
DEBRIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL KS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TRANSITIONING BEYOND TUESDAY, MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL AMPLIFY AND
RETROGRADE ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH RAIN CHANCES
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN INTENSE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHUNT A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TOWARDS CENTRAL KS BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (EC/GFS) REMAIN ALIGNED WITH ANOTHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
FOR A STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF -SHRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE BEST CHANCES SHIFT INTO NORTHERN KS AND NE.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO MVFR
WITH IFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AT GBD AND RSL IS LOW WITH ADDITIONAL -SHRA
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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