057
FXUS63 KICT 140743
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
RATHER SOUPY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND PASSING RAIN SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD BE
BRIEF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANY PASSING
RAIN SHOWER SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES. AT THE SURFACE A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FOR CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECT
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS
FOR WED-THU AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY
EAST.
NEXT ROUND FOR SHOWERS/STORMS STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY LEVELS PROJECTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW WHICH WOULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT EXITING
KANSAS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON SATURDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
MAIN AVIATION ISSUES WILL BE LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
MOST SITES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 NOW SEEING IFR LEVELS. FOG
HAS ALSO STARTED TO DEVELOP WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE VISIBILITY
AROUND OR LESS THAN 2SM. SO FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 2-3SM AT
KHUT-KGBD-KRSL THROUGH AROUND 15Z AND POSSIBLY LONGER FOR KGBD-
KRSL. LOW CIGS WILL ERODE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUE AS THE WARM
FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH. SO CURRENTLY EXPECTING LOW CIGS TO
CLEAR AT KICT AFTER SUNRISE AND CENTRAL KS IN THE 15-18Z TIME
FRAME. AS FAR AS SHOWERS GO, THEY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE A SHOWER WITH THUNDER STILL NOT EXPECTED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
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