156
FXUS63 KICT 150003
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL KS; DIMINISHING BY EARLY
EVENING
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AS OF 230 PM, MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS. DESPITE THAT, BROAD MIDLEVEL
WAA AND SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EASTERN NM THROUGH CENTRAL KS. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT WEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL SHIFT WEST AS WELL WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD.
AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHUNT A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TOWARDS CENTRAL KS BY FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE BETTER STORM CHANCES
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, DRASTICALLY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES (60-70%) FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (NEAR THE KS
TURNPIKE) AND THE BACKGROUND WIND PROFILES. EACH PRODUCES A
MODESTLY VEERED PROFILE THROUGH 3-4 KM WITH ACCELERATION THROUGH
6 KM, PRODUCING 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE MAIN
DISCREPANCY IS THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN. ECMWF ADVECTS
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S, WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S. AS A RESULT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE MAGNITUDE
OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS, AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. MID/LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GFS) CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK (MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING BACK UP BY LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 22 KTS ARE FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK
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