027
FXUS63 KICT 150707
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
207 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL
WAVE OVER NEVADA WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
TODAY THEN EJECT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WHICH WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY LEVELS THEREFORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S
SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE BEING SHOVED WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT, A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME FOR KANSAS SUNDAY-TUESDAY GIVEN SLOW RECOVERY OF
MOISTURE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH OVER CENTRAL KS
WED AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE AS SUNSET
APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
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