814
FXUS63 KICT 151733
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER AND WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL
WAVE OVER NEVADA WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
TODAY THEN EJECT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WHICH WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY LEVELS THEREFORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S
SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE BEING SHOVED WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT, A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME FOR KANSAS SUNDAY-TUESDAY GIVEN SLOW RECOVERY OF
MOISTURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT NEAR 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LLWS CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT RSL AND GBD FROM ROUGHLY 3-7Z
AS A 40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KS. DUE TO MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ, HAVE WITHHELD
ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...BRF
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