088
FXUS63 KICT 151944
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THEN ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURES TO
START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ALONG WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED THE ARKLATEX REGION. MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS RESIDES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS TODAY RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT
THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
AND INTO THURSDAY CAUSED BY PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE (WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURSDAY), AND WILL HELP TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES (ALBEIT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A PUNCH OF MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY
DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE FRIDAY EVENING, STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT OVER
THE AREA, AND INSTABILITY (MOST LIKELY ELEVATED) WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-40
KNOTS, THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE UP TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL, BUT GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60
MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. FOR SUNDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S!
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SIGNAL ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO VARY QUITE A BIT
WITH A WARMER MONDAY AND A COOLER TUESDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT NEAR 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LLWS CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT RSL AND GBD FROM ROUGHLY 3-7Z
AS A 40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KS. DUE TO MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LLJ, HAVE WITHHELD
ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF
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