219
FXUS63 KICT 160523
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THEN ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURES TO
START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ALONG WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED THE ARKLATEX REGION. MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS RESIDES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS TODAY RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT
THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
AND INTO THURSDAY CAUSED BY PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, A MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE (WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURSDAY), AND WILL HELP TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES (ALBEIT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SERVE TO BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A PUNCH OF MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY
DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE FRIDAY EVENING, STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT OVER
THE AREA, AND INSTABILITY (MOST LIKELY ELEVATED) WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-40
KNOTS, THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE UP TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL, BUT GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60
MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. FOR SUNDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S!
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SIGNAL ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO VARY QUITE A BIT
WITH A WARMER MONDAY AND A COOLER TUESDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 14-24 KT RANGE AND GUSTS
IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL KS WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS, WHILE SOUTHEAST KS
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN AROUND/BELOW 12 KTS.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS AFTER 00Z IN CENTRAL KS. AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW
IN LOCATION AND TIMING, DECIDED AGAINST A MENTION FOR THIS
CYCLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JWK
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