539
FXUS63 KICT 011137
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- WARMING TREND COMMENCES SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AREAS OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD
BASES, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS
THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
AFTER TONIGHT, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER
FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND POINTS EASTWARD, AS A FLEET-FOOTED SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS MID-AMERICA. THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT IN THE
FORECASTING REALM, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
TEMPERATURES:
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, AS
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. FOR TONIGHT, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AMIDST
DRYING LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S. CONSEQUENTLY, HOISTED A FREEZE WARNING MARION-HARVEY-
SEDGWICK-HARPER COUNTIES ON EAST, WHERE WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES HAVE YET TO VISIT SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON.
SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL START AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS UPPER RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S LOOK PROBABLE, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
PROGRESSING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHICH MAY PROMOTE A
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WITH A HANDFUL OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
COULD HAVE PERIODIC NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 14-18 KTS MID-
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION ENCOMPASSES
THE REGION. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY
SWITCH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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