937
FXUS63 KICT 021128
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY,
WITH A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN BY NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS LOOSELY SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD, AS A FLEET-FOOTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS MID-
AMERICA. HOWEVER, GIVEN ONLY MODEST FORCING AND MEAGER MOISTURE,
THINKING CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES:
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSING EAST OF
THE AREA ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS, WHERE HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 60S.
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK, PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE
EXPECTED, AS A TRAIN OF FLEET-FOOTED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, BUT A PACIFIC SOURCE REGION IN
WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WILL LIKELY PREVENT BIG COOL DOWNS.
CONSEQUENTLY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, DUE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S
LOOK PROBABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHICH COULD ENVELOP THE REGION IN A
MORE BONIFIDE COOL DOWN BY SUNDAY, BUT EVEN THEN DAYTIME HIGHS MAY
ONLY COOL INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY
LATE THIS MORNING, PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE LIKELY GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. FOR TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION, SWITCHING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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