817
FXUS63 KICT 021804
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY,
WITH A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN BY NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS LOOSELY SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD, AS A FLEET-FOOTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS MID-
AMERICA. HOWEVER, GIVEN ONLY MODEST FORCING AND MEAGER MOISTURE,
THINKING CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES:
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSING EAST OF
THE AREA ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS, WHERE HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 60S.
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK, PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE
EXPECTED, AS A TRAIN OF FLEET-FOOTED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, BUT A PACIFIC SOURCE REGION IN
WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WILL LIKELY PREVENT BIG COOL DOWNS.
CONSEQUENTLY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, DUE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S
LOOK PROBABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHICH COULD ENVELOP THE REGION IN A
MORE BONIFIDE COOL DOWN BY SUNDAY, BUT EVEN THEN DAYTIME HIGHS MAY
ONLY COOL INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. WHILE
SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WINDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVER ICT, HUT, SLN, AND CNU WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THE WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
SWITCH SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 1000 FT AGL
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT CNU.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...WI
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